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The largest in stock market history
How a 12,000-word blog post from a Brooklyn apartment contributed to the largest single-day market cap drop in stock market history.
A deep dive into how AI economics, models like DeepSeek, and GPU supply can collide with valuation narratives. Explores the potential reflexivity of the AI capex cycle.
From essay publication to historic market impact — the sequence of events that made financial history.
Why the timing matters: DeepSeek V3 was released in late December 2024, and R1 on January 20. Neither release moved the market. The selloff came a full week later, after the essay—explaining what these efficiency breakthroughs meant for Nvidia's moat—was shared widely. That timing is why the essay is widely credited with contributing to the drop, rather than the DeepSeek releases alone.
Chinese AI startup releases breakthrough reasoning model at a fraction of typical training costs. Market reaction: none.
"The Short Case for Nvidia Stock" goes live on Your Token Online, connecting the dots on what DeepSeek meant for Nvidia's moat.
Chamath Palihapitiya shares the essay to his millions of followers.
View sourceNaval Ravikant shares the essay, calling it "required reading."
View source$600B single-day market cap decline. The largest in stock market history.
Bloomberg columnist calls it "a candidate for the most impactful short research report ever."
Slashdot, TechRadar, Diginomica, Techmeme, and others cover the story.
Reactions from industry leaders, media outlets, and the tech community.
Deep dives into the analysis and its implications for AI infrastructure.
In-depth discussion aired the day after the $600B drop.
January 28, 2025
Listen NowAI infrastructure disruption, open-source innovation, AGI implications.
Listen NowDeep dive on Nvidia, XAI, Tesla FSD, and humanoid robots.
The questions raised about AI infrastructure economics, efficiency breakthroughs, and competitive dynamics remain relevant as the industry evolves. Jeffrey continues to analyze markets and build tools for the AI era.